Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 37,246
2 Mississippi 34,547
3 Florida 33,802
4 North Dakota 33,314
5 Alabama 33,034
6 Arizona 30,693
7 Iowa 30,664
8 Tennessee 30,203
9 South Carolina 30,057
10 South Dakota 29,888
11 Arkansas 29,871
12 Georgia 29,341
13 Texas 28,300
14 Nevada 27,261
15 Idaho 26,215
16 Nebraska 25,878
17 Wisconsin 25,695
18 Utah 25,569
19 Illinois 24,836
20 Rhode Island 24,585
21 New York 24,408
22 Oklahoma 24,150
23 New Jersey 23,973
24 Missouri 23,255
25 Kansas 22,391
26 District of Columbia 22,337
27 Delaware 22,266
28 North Carolina 21,523
29 Maryland 21,489
30 California 21,446
31 Massachusetts 19,867
32 Indiana 19,611
33 Minnesota 19,145
34 Virginia 18,222
35 Kentucky 17,805
36 Connecticut 16,758
37 Puerto Rico 16,374
38 Montana 15,687
39 New Mexico 15,144
40 Michigan 14,674
41 Ohio 14,052
42 Alaska 13,558
43 Pennsylvania 13,511
44 Colorado 13,229
45 Washington 12,636
46 Wyoming 12,253
47 West Virginia 9,667
48 Hawaii 9,391
49 Oregon 8,564
50 New Hampshire 6,529
51 Maine 4,195
52 Vermont 2,945

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Dakota 694
2 North Dakota 666
3 Montana 511
4 Wisconsin 448
5 Idaho 376
6 Iowa 368
7 Utah 337
8 Nebraska 310
9 Oklahoma 301
10 Arkansas 299
11 Missouri 295
12 Tennessee 276
13 Wyoming 266
14 Mississippi 236
15 Louisiana 230
16 Kentucky 206
17 Rhode Island 196
18 Illinois 191
19 Alaska 185
20 Indiana 185
21 Minnesota 184
22 North Carolina 180
23 New Mexico 178
24 Kansas 168
25 South Carolina 168
26 Texas 164
27 Nevada 154
28 Alabama 153
29 Florida 126
30 Georgia 126
31 Michigan 126
32 Colorado 124
33 Ohio 122
34 Virginia 116
35 Delaware 109
36 West Virginia 108
37 Arizona 106
38 Puerto Rico 103
39 District of Columbia 102
40 Pennsylvania 100
41 New Jersey 91
42 Maryland 90
43 Washington 88
44 Oregon 84
45 California 81
46 New York 78
47 Massachusetts 71
48 Hawaii 68
49 Connecticut 58
50 New Hampshire 48
51 Maine 23
52 Vermont 11

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,819
2 New York 1,689
3 Massachusetts 1,387
4 Connecticut 1,269
5 Louisiana 1,206
6 Rhode Island 1,063
7 Mississippi 1,032
8 District of Columbia 898
9 Arizona 789
10 Illinois 723
11 Michigan 720
12 Florida 701
13 South Carolina 682
14 Georgia 671
15 Delaware 668
16 Maryland 658
17 Pennsylvania 653
18 Texas 581
19 Indiana 555
20 Alabama 537
21 Nevada 535
22 Arkansas 498
23 Iowa 454
24 New Mexico 428
25 Ohio 426
26 California 415
27 North Dakota 412
28 Tennessee 391
29 Virginia 389
30 Missouri 384
31 Minnesota 383
32 Colorado 365
33 North Carolina 356
34 New Hampshire 329
35 South Dakota 307
36 Washington 299
37 Kentucky 284
38 Idaho 282
39 Oklahoma 274
40 Nebraska 267
41 Kansas 253
42 Wisconsin 246
43 Puerto Rico 223
44 West Virginia 206
45 Montana 184
46 Utah 157
47 Oregon 141
48 Hawaii 115
49 Maine 105
50 Wyoming 93
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 76

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 14
2 South Dakota 9
3 Missouri 7
4 Arkansas 6
5 Mississippi 6
6 Alabama 5
7 Florida 5
8 Tennessee 5
9 Georgia 3
10 Idaho 3
11 Indiana 3
12 Iowa 3
13 Kansas 3
14 South Carolina 3
15 Texas 3
16 California 2
17 Delaware 2
18 Illinois 2
19 Montana 2
20 Nevada 2
21 North Carolina 2
22 Oklahoma 2
23 Puerto Rico 2
24 Utah 2
25 Virginia 2
26 Wisconsin 2
27 Arizona 1
28 Colorado 1
29 District of Columbia 1
30 Hawaii 1
31 Kentucky 1
32 Louisiana 1
33 Massachusetts 1
34 Michigan 1
35 Minnesota 1
36 Nebraska 1
37 Ohio 1
38 Oregon 1
39 Pennsylvania 1
40 Rhode Island 1
41 Washington 1
42 West Virginia 1
43 Alaska 0
44 Connecticut 0
45 Maine 0
46 Maryland 0
47 New Hampshire 0
48 New Jersey 0
49 New Mexico 0
50 New York 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 161,241 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 155,588 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 150,833 3 99
Lafayette Florida 147,708 4 99
Lake Tennessee 134,122 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 43,096 214 93
Richland South Carolina 38,371 307 90
York South Carolina 20,578 1260 59
Orange California 17,886 1517 51
Pierce Washington 10,479 2312 26

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,085 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 604 746 76
Davidson Tennessee 460 1048 66
Orange California 411 1159 63
York South Carolina 303 1453 53
Pierce Washington 254 1617 48

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons